Wages and inflation: the ECB’s non-dilemma

Wages and inflation: the ECB’s non-dilemma

The European Central Bank (ECB) points to wage developments as a cause of concern, arguing that it jeopardises their capacity to reach their inflation target of 2%. This is an unfounded fear, as current wage trends are a natural development against the backdrop of the recent energy shock. Being guided by this concern, the ECB is erring on the side of too tight for too long.

Beware of the lags. Will the ECB continue tightening in the midst of a credit crunch?

Beware of the lags. Will the ECB continue tightening in the midst of a credit crunch?

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to further raise its rate of interest. Rate hikes take a long period of time to have an impact on the rest of the economy. The Bank Lending Survey shows that credit conditions and loan demand are tightening at rates not seen since previous major crises. A credit crunch in the making should be signaling to ECB officials that it is time to wait and see, as further increasing the interest rate without knowledge of the consequences of previous increases can prove to be a major policy mistake. 

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